Why the NRW Poll Matters: AfD Gains, CDU Losses, and What the Forsa Numbers Show
North Rhine-Westphalia's latest Forsa survey shows the CDU at 29 percent, down nearly ten points in a year, with the AfD at 22 percent. This article explains how those numbers shifted, why the state matters for the CDU nationally, and what the margins do—and don't—mean for the 2026 election.
The CDU's slide has been rapid
A year ago, the same polling line put the CDU at 38 percent and the AfD at 16 percent. That 22-point lead looked comfortable. Since April, the CDU has lost another three points, while the AfD has gained two.
Hendrik Wüst's CDU currently governs North Rhine-Westphalia with the Greens, but this sample would leave the state's political arithmetic much less forgiving. The SPD, at 14 percent, is essentially stuck. The FDP, on 3 percent, would fail to clear the five-percent threshold and would not enter the Landtag. The Greens, according to the poll's reported pattern, are the main beneficiaries of the shifts, although their exact figure is not given.
NRW is the Union's home turf
North Rhine-Westphalia is often described as the CDU's most important power center. That is not just about size; the state is where the party has traditionally been able to demonstrate competence in government. A drop of nearly ten points in one year in that state is therefore a different signal from a weak result in a smaller region.
The context matters. The CDU has already absorbed painful results in eastern Germany: the debacle in Saxony-Anhalt, missing the Landtag in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and disappointing outcomes in Berlin. The NRW numbers suggest the trouble is not confined to the east.
What the numbers actually show
Be precise about the order. This Forsa poll still places the CDU ahead of the AfD by seven points. The gap has shrunk dramatically, but it has not reversed. Any reading of the result as an AfD takeover would go beyond the figures in the available data.
The practical consequences are clear enough. A CDU at 29 percent cannot take a stable governing majority for granted. With the FDP below the threshold and the SPD weak, the Greens are the obvious coalition partner if the CDU wants to continue governing. That does not make the CDU's options impossible, but it narrows them.
A poll is a snapshot, not a forecast. What this one shows is a party losing ground quickly in the state it needs most, and a rival on the opposite end of the political spectrum gaining in tandem. For NRW, that changes the shape of the 2026 campaign.