How Typhoons Form and Why They are Getting Stronger
The Ingredients
A typhoon is a tropical cyclone that forms in the northwest Pacific Ocean. The same phenomenon is called a hurricane in the Atlantic and a cyclone in the Indian Ocean. The physics is identical. Four ingredients are required: warm ocean water of at least 26.5 degrees Celsius extending to a depth of 50 meters, atmospheric instability that allows thunderstorms to build, high humidity in the mid-troposphere, and low vertical wind shear — the change in wind speed and direction with height must be small enough that the storm's structure is not torn apart.
When these conditions are met, a cluster of thunderstorms can organize around a center of low pressure. Warm, moist air rises, creating bands of thunderstorms that spiral inward. The Coriolis effect — the deflection of moving air caused by Earth's rotation — imparts spin. An eye forms at the center where air descends, creating a pocket of clear skies surrounded by the most intense winds and rain. The storm feeds on the ocean's heat, strengthening as long as it remains over warm water.
Typhoon 13 and Okinawa
Typhoon 13, approaching Okinawa in August 2026, reached "very strong" classification on Japan's scale, with sustained winds exceeding 150 kilometers per hour and the potential for storm surge, flooding, and landslides. Okinawa is one of the most typhoon-exposed populated areas on Earth, lying directly in the path of storms that form in the warm waters east of the Philippines and track northwest toward Japan.
The Japan Meteorological Agency issues storm warnings with increasing precision, but the challenge of typhoon forecasting is predicting rapid intensification — when a storm's wind speeds increase by more than 55 kilometers per hour in 24 hours. This phenomenon, driven by interactions between the ocean and atmosphere that are not fully understood, is one of the most difficult aspects of storm prediction and the one that matters most for evacuation decisions.
The Climate Connection
A warming planet does not necessarily produce more tropical cyclones, but it does make the strongest storms stronger. The theoretical maximum intensity of a tropical cyclone increases by roughly 5 percent for every degree Celsius of ocean warming. Warmer water provides more energy. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture — about 7 percent more per degree Celsius — which means heavier rainfall. And rising sea levels make storm surge more destructive.
The northwest Pacific, where Typhoon 13 is forming, has warmed faster than the global ocean average. The result is not necessarily more storms, but a greater proportion of storms reaching the highest intensity categories. For communities in the path, this means that when a warning is issued, the stakes are higher than they were a generation ago.
The Edge Review explains science for general readers. Typhoon tracking and forecasts are provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.