Why a Four-Start Pitcher Is Getting the Ball in the Padres’ Wild-Card Game 2
Nick Pivetta was supposed to anchor the San Diego rotation in 2026. Instead, a right elbow injury wiped out nearly five months of his season. Now he’s starting Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Cubs. The decision is a bet on a pitcher whose regular season barely existed.
A Season Reduced to Four Starts
Pivetta entered the year as the Padres’ Opening Day starter. That tells you how the team viewed him before the trouble began. But the elbow problem limited him to only four starts once he returned. In those four appearances, according to Sports Illustrated, he allowed three runs over 18 2/3 innings, good for a 1.45 ERA. It’s a tiny sample, and the Padres know it.
What the numbers don’t capture is how he throws. Pivetta has never relied on sheer durability. His value is in swing-and-miss stuff and the ability to keep hitters off balance. In a short series, that profile can play up. The Cubs have seen it before.
What He Did Last October
Last year, Pivetta started Game 1 of the wild-card series against these same Cubs. He went five innings, gave up two runs, and struck out nine. That performance is part of the reason the Padres trust him now. He has done this exact job, against this exact opponent, under this exact kind of pressure.
There are questions, though. A starter with a 1.45 ERA across four games might look like a clear choice, but a 1.45 ERA over 18 2/3 innings is not the same as a 1.45 ERA over 150 innings. The Padres are asking Pivetta to recapture a rhythm he hasn’t had for most of the season. They are also asking him to do it in front of a crowd that expects October baseball.
The Leap of Faith
The timing matters. San Diego reached the postseason despite a season full of pitching complications. Joe Musgrove, another injured arm, is on the roster as a reliever. Pivetta is a different kind of gamble. He isn’t being eased back in. He’s being handed one of the biggest starts of the year.
If Pivetta’s arm holds up and his fastball commands the zone, the Padres’ decision looks smart. If he falters early, the bullpen has to cover the game. Either way, the team has chosen to find out.
What makes the story unusual is how little recent evidence exists. Pivetta missed most of the year. He came back for four starts. Then he was named to start a playoff game. That isn’t a normal progression. It’s a leap of faith guided by a small set of impressive numbers and one memorable postseason outing.
The Cubs will prepare for him based on that limited film and last year’s meeting. They know he can strike out nine. They also know he hasn’t pitched a full season’s worth of innings in a long time. How he responds could decide the series.
So the question isn’t whether Pivetta deserves the start. It’s whether a handful of innings can stand in for a full season. The Padres are betting yes. We’ll see if their Opening Day starter can finish what the season never allowed him to start.