What Manitoba's Counter-Tariffs Mean for Local Businesses and Supply Chains
With 50 percent tariffs now in place on roughly $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, Canada is hitting back. Dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs on $26.7 billion of United States imports are scheduled to take effect September 8. For Manitoba, a province that sent 73 percent of its trade to the U.S. before the dispute, the pain is immediate and uneven.
50% Tariffs on $20 Billion: The New Reality
The U.S. tariffs, imposed just after midnight on a Saturday, cover a broad set of Canadian exports. Washington’s list includes natural honey, lumber, dairy, alcohol, and more. In response, Ottawa will retaliate with levies on American imports ranging from dishwasher parts and cotton T-shirts to toilet paper. The goal is to apply pressure at the border and on the checkout counter.
Manitoba’s trade flows have already shifted. The share of the province’s exports going to the U.S. has dropped from 73 percent to 66 percent. That number could fall further once the counter-tariffs raise costs on both sides.
A Honey Farm’s Existential Crisis
Podolski Honey Farms, based in Ethelbert, Manitoba, ships roughly 90 percent of its honey to customers in the United States. General manager Osee Podolsky described the situation bluntly: “Effectively, we’re out of business.” His farm rushed to move as much inventory as possible before the 50 percent duty took effect. If the tariffs stay, he said, selling at that cost is impossible. “I would go bankrupt,” he told reporters.
The farm’s struggle is not unique. Any Manitoba exporter that depends heavily on a single U.S. buyer faces the same choice: find new customers in Canada, absorb the tariff, or shut down. The problem is that many producers are trying to sell into the same shrinking Canadian pool at once, risking a race to the bottom.
Retailers Face Cost Dilemmas
Canadian retailers who import from the United States will also feel the counter-tariffs. The Retail Council of Canada’s Prairies director, John Graham, said the challenge will be factoring the cost difference between an alternative supplier and the consumer’s willingness to pay a higher price. Many companies have spent the past year trying to source outside the U.S., but those supply chain shifts can take years.
Beyond the tariffs themselves, the U.S. removed the de minimis exemption in August 2025. That rule had allowed shipments under US$800 to enter duty-free. Its elimination means even small cross-border orders now incur tariffs, adding friction for Manitoba businesses that rely on just-in-time imports.
Barry Prentice, a supply chain management professor at the University of Manitoba, noted that the trade dispute will disrupt carefully laid logistics. More scrutiny at the border will cause delays, he said, and some products will face unpredictable hold-ups.
No Winners on Either Side of the Border
Chuck Davidson, president of the Manitoba Chambers of Commerce, summarized the situation: “Everyone loses — when you’re in a tariff war, there are no winners. You’re going to lose on both sides of the border, costs are going to go up.”
Premier Wab Kinew has expressed support for the federal government’s decision to retaliate and said tax deferrals for businesses are a possibility. But for a company like Evolution Wheel, whose owner Derek Hird said the business crosses the U.S. border every day with raw materials and products, the new duties eat into margins immediately.
A recent Angus Reid poll found that 76 percent of Canadians agree it was right to end negotiations, but nearly 90 percent are concerned about the cost of goods rising. A “Buy Canadian” push is surging again, but it cannot replace the scale of what was lost overnight.