How Berlin’s 2026 State Election Turns Votes Into Seats
Berlin votes on 20 September 2026 to elect a new Abgeordnetenhaus, the state parliament. Around 2.49 million people are eligible. Polling stations open from 8:00 to 18:00. In the city’s twelve districts, voters also elect their local assemblies, the Bezirksverordnetenversammlungen.
Two votes, one ballot
Every voter has two votes. The first vote selects a candidate in one of Berlin’s 78 constituencies. The candidate with the most first votes in a constituency takes that seat directly. The second vote goes to a party list. The second vote is decisive for the overall distribution of seats.
The Abgeordnetenhaus has at least 130 members. Parties must win at least five percent of the second votes to enter it. That threshold shapes the entire campaign, because it filters out small parties before any coalition talks begin.
Overhang seats and the Hare-Niemeyer method
The first vote can create an imbalance. If a party wins more direct constituencies than its second-vote share would justify, it receives what Berlin’s public broadcaster rbb24 describes as overhang mandates. Other parties then receive leveling seats to keep the proportion of power balanced. The final size of parliament therefore depends on the race in individual constituencies.
For the proportional distribution, Berlin uses the Hare-Niemeyer procedure. It allocates seats to parties as close as possible to their share of the second vote. The provisional seat plan is expected on the Monday after election day, once all 78 constituencies have reported.
Prognosis, projection, result
Results arrive in three distinct steps. A prognosis is an early forecast based on surveys of voters as they leave the polling stations. A projection, or Hochrechnung, uses those surveys together with counted votes and is updated repeatedly through the night. Only the official provisional result, once every vote is counted, is a real outcome.
A race too close to call
The latest polling makes the election unusually difficult to predict. Tagesschau reported an ARD pre-election survey in which Die Linke stood at 21 percent and the CDU at 20 percent. A survey by the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, reported by T-Online, showed an even tighter pair at the top: Die Linke with 23 percent and the CDU with 21 percent. The AfD followed at 17 percent, the Greens at 16, and the SPD at 10. The BSW, running in Berlin for the first time, measured three to four percent — below the five-percent threshold.
The current black-red coalition of the CDU and SPD would lose its majority under these numbers. Politically possible alternatives include a coalition of Die Linke, Greens and SPD, or one of CDU, Greens and SPD. All other parties have ruled out working with the AfD.
Coalition arithmetic is not the only moving part. Berlin’s incumbent mayor, Kai Wegner of the CDU, withdrew his candidacy two months ago; the CDU now runs with Stefan Evers. Die Linke’s lead candidate is Elif Eralp.
Polls reflect the mood of the week they are taken in. They are not forecasts. Until the votes are counted, the only reliable answer is the one written on the ballot.