Why the Emma Navarro–Anna Kalinskaya US Open Matchup Could Hinge on Serving
Summary: Learn how Emma Navarro and Anna Kalinskaya reached the fourth round of the 2026 US Open, where their head-to-head and serving numbers stand, and why the double-fault count will likely shape Sunday's outcome.
Anna Kalinskaya and Emma Navarro are scheduled to close Sunday's play at the US Open on Arthur Ashe Stadium. The fourth-round match is set for roughly 8:40 p.m. ET on ESPN, according to PrizePicks. Both players enter with three-match winning streaks, and both are ranked inside the top 30. PrizePicks calls it a close matchup; the details support that.
The stakes are slightly different for each woman. Kalinskaya has reached the quarterfinals at two other majors, but this is already her deepest run at the US Open. Navarro reached the US Open semifinals before, yet she had not advanced past the third round at any major in 2026 until this event.
How They Got Here
Navarro's road here was rougher than her record suggests. A health issue contributed to a 5-11 start to the season, according to PrizePicks, and she made early exits in Washington, Toronto, and Cincinnati. Then she upset Wimbledon finalist Karolina Muchova 6-3, 7-5 in the third round. She won 52 percent of her return points in that straight-sets win. That return form could be the key against Kalinskaya's serve.
Kalinskaya also arrives with momentum. She beat world No. 9 Elina Svitolina 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 in the previous round. But her serving numbers are noisy. She has hit 28 double faults across the tournament, including 14 in that win over Svitolina, per PrizePicks.
The Serving Split
That serving contrast showed up the last time these two played. They met in Doha earlier this season on hard courts. Kalinskaya won 7-5, 2-6, 6-2 in 125 minutes, according to TennisTemple. In that match, she put 58 percent of first serves in play but made 14 double faults. Navarro landed 56 percent of first serves and made three. Kalinskaya leads the head-to-head 2-0.
TennisTemple's hard-court numbers also favor Kalinskaya. She is 102-82 on the surface. Navarro is 63-49. Add the head-to-head lead, and Kalinskaya has the statistical edge. The schedule might even it out: Kalinskaya played Saturday, while Navarro played Friday and has an extra day of rest.
What the Winner Gets
The winner moves into the quarterfinals. For Kalinskaya, that would be her first US Open quarterfinal. For Navarro, it would validate the sharp turnaround she has shown after a difficult season. The likely deciding factor is simple: whether Kalinskaya can keep double faults out of the rallies, or whether Navarro's return game keeps punishing them.