What the Dodgers and Padres Are Playing For in Their Final Regular-Season Meeting
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres closed the regular season against each other with the standings pulling them in different directions. One win meant different things for each club. For the Dodgers, it could secure a bye past the Wild Card round. For the Padres, it could clinch a playoff berth outright.
One Win, Two Very Different Meanings
By the time the series reached its final home game, the two teams had split the first two meetings. The Padres took one with a 4-2 win in which Los Angeles went quiet at the plate.
The stakes, as True Blue LA laid out, were asymmetric. The Dodgers were one win from the second seed in the National League, which comes with a direct path into the NL Division Series. The Padres were one win from punching their playoff ticket. At the time, they held the fourth seed, one game up on the Phillies and the Cubs.
The remaining schedules explained the different levels of tension. The Dodgers finished against the Giants, a team far out of contention; only a collapse of near-impossible proportions could have cost them a bye. The Padres, by contrast, closed the year at home against the Diamondbacks, leaving them a much thinner margin for error. True Blue LA noted that after this matchup, the Dodgers' next home game would likely be hosting the winner of the Wild Card series between the third- and sixth-place teams.
Two Comebacks at Different Speeds
The marquee pitching matchup featured Tyler Glasnow and Nick Pivetta, two starters who had spent much of the season injured. True Blue LA reported that the pair combined for fewer than 20 starts. Their recoveries were at different stages. Glasnow had been fully built up for some time. Pivetta, in his third start back, had yet to reach 80 pitches.
That gap mattered in a game with October implications. A starter who cannot go deep pushes a bullpen into service earlier, and in late September, every bullpen out carries extra weight.
A Lineup Finding Its Form
The Dodgers' offense arrived at the series in a dangerous mood. Mookie Betts was on fire. Shohei Ohtani was returning from the injured list, giving Los Angeles a lineup that True Blue LA described as being in a great spot near the end of the season.
A Potential October Sequel
The Dodgers and Padres have met in the NL Division Series in 2020, 2022, and 2024. According to True Blue LA, a 2026 meeting would likely wait until the NL Championship Series. That would require both teams to win their first two postseason rounds.
The Dodgers clinched a bye into the NLDS and were set to open their postseason at home on October 3, according to the same report. The Padres' path was less certain, but the series gave them a direct read on one of the teams they may need to beat.
For one late-September set of games, a single win was worth more to one club than to the other. That is how baseball's final days work. The math differs for everyone, and the Dodgers-Padres series was a clean demonstration of the rule.