Aryna Sabalenka’s US Open Three-Peat Bid Starts With a Test of Nerves
Aryna Sabalenka arrives at the 2026 US Open as the world No. 1 and the two-time defending champion. She also arrives with the weakest form of her recent career. That combination makes this year's tournament a genuine unknown.
A Champion With an Unusual Hole in Her Résumé
Sabalenka has not reached a WTA final since March. In the two lead-up events in August, she lost in the round of 16 at both the Canadian Open and the Cincinnati Open, a stretch documented in a WTBX tournament report. For a player who owns the tour's most aggressive baseline game, those are not the results of someone in full control.
Sabalenka does not hide from the drop-off. "It wasn't the best period... I've been dealing with several things. But who cares, right? Yeah, I didn't perform my best," she said. The second part is classic Sabalenka. The first part is the real issue.
Why Her Game Still Suits New York
The US Open's hard courts reward exactly the kind of fast, aggressive tennis Sabalenka plays. She wins with first-strike power, a heavy serve, and baseline pressure that forces opponents to overhit. She has also improved her emotional control in recent years, turning her aggression from a liability into a weapon.
That is why the predictions still make her the overwhelming favorite. An analysis from Tennis Predictions gives her a 10/10 confidence score for her opener and lists her at odds of 1.06, against 9.75 for her opponent.
The First-Round Test
Her first-round opponent, Camila Osorio, presents an interesting contrast. Osorio cannot match Sabalenka for power, so she relies on movement, variety, and a competitive attitude to stay in rallies. That style can be awkward for a big hitter who wants to end points early. But it is hard to imagine it producing an upset unless Sabalenka is fighting her own rhythm.
The real test will come later. Her early draw gives her a chance to rebuild confidence against an opponent who cannot match her firepower. It also means the defending champion can get through a match while still searching for her best tennis.
What a Third Title Would Mean
A third consecutive US Open title would put Sabalenka in rare company. She would become only the 12th woman to win the tournament three years in a row, and the first to do so since Serena Williams won three straight from 2012 to 2014.
That is the historical prize. The immediate one is simpler: she needs to prove that a bad spring and a patchy August do not define who she is when the lights are brightest. For Sabalenka, the US Open has always been where she finds her best tennis. This year, she has to find it again.